Just how did candidates that supported the national FairTax proposal do across the country?
Of the 435 races for the House, 114 of them involved candidates expressing some level of support for the FairTax. One race, OH07, had two FairTax supporters, for a total of 115 candidates supporting the FairTax.
Of the 115 candidates, there were 2 Independents, and 113 Republicans.
Of the 114 races, 65 FairTax candidates were Incumbents and 50 were Challengers.
Of the 114 races, the FairTax was a significant issue in 30 of the races; And in those 30 races,1 FairTax candidate was an Incumbent, and 29 FairTax candidates were Challengers.
The Incumbent won his race for 100% success rate.
In the 29 Challenger races, 17 were won by the FairTax candidate for a 58.6% success rate overall.
Of the 29 races, there were 13 where the FairTax was defended either by the Grassroots or the Challenger. Of that 13, 11 were won, for an 84.6% success rate.
In the 17 races where neither the Challenger nor Grassroots provided significant defense, 7 were won by the FairTax Challenger, for a 41.2% success rate.
To put the above 84.6% and 41.2% success rates into perspective, in the November, 2010 election, Democrats (none of whom were publicly advocating the FairTax) had to defend 252 seats. Republicans won 65 seats against Democrat Incumbents for an overall success rate of 25.8%.
Contrary to “conventional wisdom” Democrats attacked on FairTax issue only when in trouble. In most of the House races against FairTax candidates, Democrats did not try to use the FairTax as an issue (83 races out of 114). When they did use it, they experienced results that were, on average, worse than their counterparts who did not use misrepresentations of the FairTax to attack their opponent.
Overall, Republican Challengers won 25.8% of their races in this election cycle, but if the FairTax was used as an issue, Republican Challengers won 58.6% of the races.
In cases where the FairTax candidate was challenged on the FairTax issue, but failed to respond, they still experienced a benefit. Passive FairTax candidates won 41.2% of their races, compared to the national Republican metric of 25.8%. So, just being identified as a supporter of the FairTax, even when the opponent controlled the debate, resulted in a 15.4% improvement in the success rate.
In cases where the FairTax candidate and/or the grassroots responded aggressively to the FairTax challenge, the success rate for Republican FairTax candidates jumped to an astonishing 84.6% success rate. This demonstrates that making the FairTax an issue, and aggressively promoting it, results in a nearly 45 percentage point advantage over passively favoring the FairTax.
Compared to Republicans who were not identified as supporters of the FairTax those aggressively promoting and defending it enjoyed a 58.8% advantage.
The conclusion is clear: The more the public hears about the FairTax, the more they like it and the more they support advocates of the proposal. FairTax candidates are much more likely to be elected, and candidates that adopt the FairTax as a key plank in their political platform and aggressively promote it are far more likely to win than those that are less enthusiastic in their support of the FairTax.